Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education

2017 National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Award for Outstanding AACRAO SEM Research PresentationHigher education faces a looming demographic storm. Decades-long patterns in fertility migration and immigration persistently nudge the country toward the Hispanic Southwest. As a result the Northeast and Midwest?traditional higher education strongholds?expect to lose 5 percent of their college-aged populations between now and the mid-2020s. Furthermore and in response to the Great Recession child-bearing has plummeted. In 2026 when the front edge of this birth dearth reaches college campuses the number of college-aged students will drop almost 15 percent in just 5 years.In Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education Nathan D. Grawe has developed the Higher Education Demand Index (HEDI) which relies on data from the 2002 Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) to estimate the probability of college-going using basic demographic variables. Analyzing demand forecasts by institution type and rank while disaggregating by demographic groups Grawe provides separate forecasts for two-year colleges elite institutions and everything in between. The future demand for college attendance he argues depends critically on institution type. While many schools face painful contractions for example demand for elite schools is expected to grow by more than 15 percent in future years.Essential for administrators and trustees who are responsible for recruitment admissions student support tenure practices facilities construction and strategic planning this book is a practical guide for navigating coming enrollment challenges.

Hardcover: 192 pages

Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press (January 1 2018)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1421424134

ISBN-13: 978-1421424132

Product Dimensions: 6 x 0.7 x 9 inches

Shipping Weight: 14.4 ounces